With a core of talented players in perfect harmony, Borussia Dortmund delivered an almighty 4-1 thrashing of Freiburg on Saturday, and belatedly breathed new life into their still-tenuous challenge for the top-four.

But still, nobody really envies Der BVB right now. There is no question that their next three games will be the ultimate proving ground for Niko Kovac, with a Klassiker against Bayern falling between two UCL quarter-final legs against the mighty Barcelona.

In the latter tests, it seems almost inevitable that Robert Lewandowski will once again ruin his former club in those European clashes, and add further to an eye-watering tally of 27 goals from as many prior games against Dortmund.

But Dortmund aren’t without hope. Memories of last year’s unlikely triumph over PSG to reach the final could provide some inspiration, and they too have the means to damage their opponents with a positive start. One man in particular stands as a prime candidate to do that, and his name is Karim Adeyemi.

A fast Kar goes far

By now, we’re all fully aware of Adeyemi’s core skills, and if he doesn’t end up at Real Madrid, PSG or Barcelona within two years, it will be a huge surprise.

He was the Bundesliga’s fastest-ever player going into 2024/25 and his record of 22.77 mph still stands fourth today. That pace is mixed with the ever-growing ability to shoot, making him a versatile option across the front three.

His strike on Saturday against Freiburg – coincidentally the team he posted said speed record against two years ago – opened the floodgates, and the relative difficulty of its execution showed why he should be considered for some degree of inclusion in a Bet Builder more often than not.

Win-rate speaks volumes

As well as providing a full illustration of what he can produce on his day, it was another addition to an unbeaten personal all-time record across goalscoring appearances in the German Bundesliga and its Austrian namesake (W28, D2).

His side on the day is also unbeaten on the 11 occasions he’s been on the scoresheet in UCL games, including qualifiers (W9, D2). That’s impressive for someone who is still only 23 years of age and yet to fully mature.

But for anyone who likes a bigger potential payout, ‘Adeyemi over 0.5 shots & Dortmund to win’ usually isn’t enough, given the respect the Westfalenstadion side commands across the continent and at the bookmakers. So a deeper look at his goalscoring stats is needed…

#Trailblazer

As well as speed that could leave a blaze anywhere, he always seems to set the gears of victory in motion whenever he nets first. That’s certainly the case in the German Bundesliga, as since joining Dortmund in 2022, Der BVB have a perfect record (from six games) whenever Adeyemi has scored first.

Not only that, all of those games yielded wins by at least two clear goals.

No late shows… yet

So far this season, Adeyemi has erred towards first-half goals, with seven of his nine strikes overall coming before HT. That reflects his ability to stun the unwary with his pace when starting, but he’s still probably a year or two off fully learning how to use his energy more efficiently.

Indeed, despite being a prodigious talent on the brink of his all-round physical peak, Adeyemi is yet to score beyond the hour mark in any Bundesliga game in 2024/25.

Of course, Kovac’s fledgling regime may change that in the coming weeks, so it remains to be seen whether or not Adeyemi can be a threat in the latter minutes as Dortmund keep fourth-placed Mainz in their sights.

For the record, his average goal time from all games in that division is 32.46 minutes – making him, in theory, at his deadliest in the 33rd minute. Meanwhile his UCL average is very similar at 31.69 minutes.

Miscellaneous trends

From Adeyemi’s six goalscoring games this term, we get the following insights:

Over/Under, Odd/Even & BTTS

• Over 2.5 Goals: Four games
• BTTS (Yes): Four games
• Even total goals: Four games
  • Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS (Yes): Three games
  • BTTS (Yes) & Even: Three games
    • Over 2.5 Goals & Even: Two games

Overall, there’s nothing too strong there, so some gut instinct will be needed if using these more niche elements as part of a Bet Builder.

Corners & Over/Under

With Adeyemi goals so often being accompanied by a side order of wide winning margins, it’s hardly surprising (with Dortmund’s corners shown first) to see that Dortmund have won the corner count in most of those same matches. 

• Heidenheim (H: W 4-2) / Corner count: 8-1
• Celtic (H: W 7-1) / Corner count: 8-4
• Sporting CP (A: W 3-0) / Corner count: 8-4
• St. Pauli (A: W 2-0) / Corner count: 1-7
• Lille (H: D 1-1) / Corner count: 5-1
• Freiburg (A: W 4-1) / Corner count: 4-3

As shown here, only the last game failed to produce a winner in the ‘race to five corners’ stakes. Corners ranged 6-12 in total, with an average of exactly 9.0 per game.

Bet Builder tips and value analysis

In truth, it may be wiser to take all this insight into games where Dortmund are favourites. It is, of course, in those games that they can more effectively deploy the attack-minded starting formation that Adeyemi loves. In turn, he could be added to Bet Builders with greater confidence in that scenario.

Dortmund will more likely do this in the Klassiker, given that they have nothing much to lose and know they won’t draw their way to catching Mainz in the Bundesliga. But that isn’t to say their trip to Barcelona should be a betting write-off.

Vs Barcelona (A): 9th April @ 9/2

• Robert Lewandowski to Score Anytime
• Karim Adeyemi 1+ Shots
• Both Teams to Score (Yes)
• Barcelona Over 4.5 Corners
• Most Shots on Target: Barcelona
• Corner Handicap: Barcelona -1

Barcelona are unbeaten at home in this season’s UCL (W4, D1), but beyond the formality that was October’s 5-0 thrashing of BSC Young Boys, they haven’t exactly been watertight at the back.

Since then, it’s just one home clean sheet in Europe from a possible four, while across all venues, and amongst those still in the competition, Barcelona had the most porous defence in the league phase.

Then again, Dortmund only conceded one goal fewer, so a positive BTTS result seems highly feasible on top of an ‘inevitable’ Lewandowski goal.

For the Adeyemi element, 47/40 on him taking at least one shot (on BetVictor) seems like a fair call and adds some beef to the potential payout.

Vs Bayern (A): 12th April @ 15/2

• Adeyemi to score or assist
• Bayern/Draw double chance
• Bayern to win 2nd half

With Bayern having the meanest defence in the Bundesliga, backing anyone to breach them is a brave move – with or without a more ‘gung ho’ approach from Dortmund, compared to the one they should take in Catalonia.

Therefore, the sensible option is to include a single Adeyemi shot on target as the topical inclusion if possible. However, he has previous form for upsetting Die Roten, having netted a winning opener in last season’s corresponding fixture, which ended 2-0 to Der BVB.

Adeyemi is 3/1 to score or assist on Bet365, which makes for a significant influence on any Bet Builder’s potential payout.

It would be a surprise if history repeats itself though, as not since the days of Jurgen Klopp’s successive title wins (in 2011 and 2012) have Dortmund won successive away league Klassikers.

Further reasoning behind the other two selections can also be found in Bayern’s slightly superior second-half record in the Bundesliga this term (W17, D9, L2 – the equivalent of 60 points) compared to the record they have before half-time (W15, D11, L2 – 56 pts).