”B-b-bu-but Zack, It’s April, why are we talking about NFL season win totals when we will first see meaningful football being played in September?”
At Bespokesters, there’s no such phrase as ‘too early’ if you want to get detailed insight into niche NFL betting markets.
If you want success in the NFL markets, analysing the Win Totals market early is the way to go. It gives us the opportunity to spot value before the market realizes it.
Even better, the 2025 NFL Draft (April 24th) hasn’t passed yet. Everything is quiet and everyone is asleep. So here’s the pro bettor advice of the day:
Pro bettors don’t only bet teams, they bet numbers.
Backing outright odds is like investing in stocks. You want to hop on the train when the price is right. Can bets lose? Of course. We’re after long-term success, not a flash-in-the-pan payday.
Now let’s get serious and see the three win total bets that I think will put a smile on our faces in January 2026 (or earlier).
- Chicago Bears – Over/Under 8.5 Wins
- Washington Commanders – Over/Under 9.5 Wins
- Los Angeles Rams – Over/Under 9.5 Wins
Chicago Bears – Over/Under 8.5 Wins
My projection: 9.6 Wins
The Bet: Over 8.5 Wins at 11/10 (+110)
The 2024 Chicago Bears were a case study in how bad luck and timing can sink a season. Despite finishing 5–12, this team showed signs of being far better than their record suggests — and if you’re looking for a prime positive regression candidate in 2025, this is it.
The Bears lost six one-score games in 2024, including several late-game meltdowns. Six one-score games! Six!
How about a little taste? Sorry, Bears fans, for reminding you of some of these!
The Hail Mary that started it all versus the Commanders. The Bears were 4-2 when this happened:
And who can forget the heartbreaking blocked 39-yard field goal to end regulation against all-time rival Green Bay. In case you’ve lived under a rock, field goals are blocked <1% of the time in the NFL.
I’ll conclude today’s highlight or should I say lowlight session with the most infamous clock (mis)management in the history of Chicago. Yes, against another division rival, namely the Detroit Lions.
NFL teams that suffer multiple close losses like that tend to bounce back the following year — it’s one of the league’s most reliable betting trends. Since 2010, teams with 3+ one-score losses over expected win total have improved by an average of +2.6 wins the next season. (I love this stat!).
Quarterback Caleb Williams enters Year 2 with legitimate momentum. He showed flashes of elite talent despite inconsistent protection and a young offense. Helping unlock his potential is new head coach Ben Johnson, the former Lions offensive coordinator who masterminded one of the NFL’s most efficient scoring attacks over the last two seasons. If anyone can turn raw tools into real production, it’s him.
The Bears invested heavily this offseason to support that vision, as reflected by the fact that they added guard Joe Thuney (via trade), guard Jonah Jackson, and center Drew Dalman to overhaul the offensive line. On defense, they brought in Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo to upgrade the pass rush — targeted moves in areas that mattered.
But wait…that’s not all. Remember, the 2025 NFL Draft hasn’t even taken place yet!
Chicago is no longer a rebuilding team — this is a roster set up to win now. So I project 9.6 wins for the Bears in 2025, with a 61.4% chance of hitting 9+, even accounting for modest quarterback growth and an average-strength of schedule.
At 11/10 (+110), the Over 8.5 line implies just a 47.6% break-even probability, which gives us a meaningful betting edge on a team primed to leap forward. 61% is higher than 47%, right? And I get a plus-money price? Sign me up before the market catches up!
Conclusion: Positive regression is coming, the roster is improved, and Ben Johnson brings real football upside. Over 8.5 wins at 11/10 is the top value play on the board for 2025.
Washington Commanders – Over/Under 9.5 Wins
My projection: 8.7 Wins
The Bet: Under 9.5 Wins at EVS (-100)
The Commanders shocked the league in 2024 — a 12-win season, NFC Championship run, and a breakout rookie year from Jayden Daniels put Washington squarely back on the map. But heading into 2025, the market may be pricing them a little too aggressively, posting their win total at 9.5.
Let’s be clear: this is a promising team with a rising star at quarterback, a sharp offensive staff, and a ton of young talent. But they also played a bit above their head last year. Their +4 point differential suggests a team profile closer to 10.5 wins than 12, and their 8–4 record in one-score games typically screams “regression candidate” for the following year.
The defense — though ascending — still had holes, finishing 19th in EPA. And the offseason included some key departures – Jonathan Allen (DT), Dante Fowler Jr. (OLB) and Jeremy Chinn (DB). These three account for a win differential of about 0.4-0.5 wins per season.
Deebo Samuel (WR) and Laremy Tunsil (LT) were acquired but there are questions about Samuel’s health/age and I’m still not sure about that defense.
The 2025 schedule also stiffens up: games against San Francisco, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Buffalo all loom large.
I’m looking at team strength, schedule, and regression trends and this pegs Washington at 8.7 wins, with a 69.1% chance they stay under 9.5. At even odds. This is a strong +EV opportunity — we’re essentially getting even money on a line that should be closer to 5/7 (-140).
Conclusion: The Commanders are still on the rise, but they’re more likely a 9–8 or 8–9 team than a repeat double-digit winner. Under 9.5 at even money is a sharp bet.
Los Angeles Rams – Over/Under 9.5 Wins
My projection: 8.4 Wins
The Bet: Under 9.5 Wins at 21/20 (+105)
After a 10–7 finish and a Wild Card appearance in 2024, the Rams head into 2025 with expectations baked into the market — but the roster may not support the hype. Los Angeles is posted at 9.5 wins, but our model has them closer to 8.4, and a deeper dive into their offseason moves reinforces why this Under is a high-value bet at 21/20 (+105).
Let’s start with the elephant in the room: Cooper Kupp (WR) is gone. Released in March, Kupp’s departure strips the Rams of their most consistent third-down weapon and team leader.
They did land a big-name replacement in Davante Adams (WR), who signed a two-year deal, but he’s coming off a turbulent stint with the Jets and will be 33 by midseason. He’s still dangerous — just not the game-changer he was in his prime.
Defensively, the loss of Michael Hoecht (DL) and Jake Hummel (DB) dents their linebacker depth. Signing Poona Ford (DT) helps plug gaps, but the front seven remains a tier below contender-level. The Rams also brought back Coleman Shelton and added Nate Landman and Tony Fields II, but come on, those are rotational pieces, not needle-movers.
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford (QB) turns 37 before Week 1 and hasn’t played a full season since 2021. If he misses time, the QB room behind him offers basically no options.
The schedule isn’t doing LA any favors either — two matchups against division rival 49ers, Bills, Dolphins, Packers, and Lions put a real cap on their ceiling.
With 8.4 projected wins, we get 75.2% chance that the Rams will stay under 9.5. The odds suggest this chance is 48%.
Conclusion: This is still a competitive team with elite coaching, but the roster isn’t built to survive regression or injuries. At 21/20, Under 9.5 wins offers one of the cleanest +EV positions on the board.
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