The NBA’s Western Conference side of the play-in tournament is way more exciting compared to its Eastern counterpart, but that won’t prevent me from looking for value bets.

I’m applying the same logic I did when I looked for +EV bets on teams to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.

Let’s try and spot the lines that are juiced to the gills and the ones that might allow us to win a few shekels in the West.

How do we spot +EV for teams on the playoff bubble?

Let me explain the model first, even though if you clicked on the link a couple of sentences earlier, you probably saw a bunch of formulas and percentages already.

Teams that claim the 7^th or 8^th seeds will be able to take two stabs at making the postseason. Teams that are in 9^th and 10^th place will face off in a brutal game (Game 2) and the winner will play against the loser of Game 1 for the ultimate honor to play in the 2025 NBA playoffs.

It might not be as glorious as I make it sound but hey, it’s a lot of fun.

If you finish 7^th or 8^th, that’s the playoff path you got.

Great, so now we can actually use the more condensed format of the formula to find out the true (fair) chances for each team to make the NBA playoffs.

How the math works

• For 7th/8th seed teams:
  Chance to make it to the playoffs = Win Game 1 + (Lose Game 1 × Win Game 3)
• For 9th/10th seed teams:
  Chance to make it to the playoffs = Win Game 2 × Win Game 3

Dallas Mavericks to make the playoffs

Book	Odds	Implied Probability
DraftKings	6/1 (+600)	14.29%
Bet365	15/2 (+750)	11.76%
Betano	13/2 (+650)	13.33%

The Mavs have the toughest path of the group, stuck in the 10th seed with no safety net. It’s two win-or-go-home games or they’re watching from Cancun. Luka’s not walking through that door either — he’s on the Lakers now. This is Anthony Davis’ squad, and while he’s been productive, this team is one injury or cold stretch away from folding.

That said, they aren’t hopeless. The first game is vs. Sacramento — a winnable matchup. The second? Probably Memphis or Minnesota. Tougher, but not a death sentence.

0.45 (vs SAC) × 0.35 (vs MEM/MIN) = 15.75%
Fair odds: 11/2 (+550)

Any value on the Mavs?

There’s actually a little bit of meat on the bone here. At 15/2 from Bet365, you’re getting something because the other two teams aren’t exactly solid either. That’s exactly when underdogs can hit. Slight value, worth some pizza money.

Sacramento Kings to make the playoffs

Book	Odds	Implied Probability
DraftKings	17/4 (+425)	23.53%
Bet365	21/4 (+525)	19.05%
Betano	4/1 (+400)	20.00%

The Kings will likely be the 9-seed and host the Mavs in Game 2. That’s at least some edge for a team that plays well at home and has playoff experience from last season. If they get by Dallas, it’s a second chance against a declining Memphis or a pretty young T-wolves team.

They’re not perfect, but they don’t need to be perfect. They need to win twice. And based on form and matchups, that’s not crazy.

0.55 (vs Dallas) × 0.40 (vs /MIN) = 22.0%
Fair odds: 7/2 (+350)

What’s the value on the Kings looking like?

Bet365 has them at 21/4, which implies under 20%. I’ve got them a bit higher. Nothing huge, but a mild +EV spot. If you like betting momentum and matchups, Sacramento fits the profile.

Memphis Grizzlies to make the playoffs

Book	Yes	Implied Probability
DraftKings	2/9 (−450)	81.82%
Bet365	2/9 (−450)	81.82%
Betano	2/9 (−450)	81.82%

Memphis is barely holding onto the 8th spot and feels like a team spiraling downward. They’ve gone 14–25 since the break, and their offense looks disjointed without a steady point guard presence. They also literally just lost to the Nuggets in a 117-109 snoozefest.

Yes, they get two shots to win one. But those shots are likely against Minnesota and then Sacramento/Dallas. Neither is a layup. This number screams “early-season reputation” and not “current form.”

0.35 (vs MIN) + 0.65 × 0.50 = 67.5%
Fair odds: 8/11 (−137)

Where’s the +EV with the Grizzlies?

YES! There’s value here and it is on the ‘’no’’ selection! Memphis to NOT make the playoffs can currently be bought at 3/1 (+300) or better. Go now!

Minnesota Timberwolves to make the playoffs

Book	Yes	Implied Probability
DraftKings	1/100 (−10000)	99.70%
Bet365	3/1000 (−33333)	99.70%
Betano	1/200 (−20000)	99.50%

Minnesota probably ends up in the 7th spot, giving them two bites at the apple. Their first game will likely be at home vs. Memphis, and if they lose, they’ll still host Game 3. That’s a solid position.

The team is young, athletic, and fully healthy. Rudy Gobert looks more engaged, and Anthony Edwards has grown into a reliable crunch-time scorer. They’re for real — but are they 99.7% guaranteed to get in?

0.65 (vs MEM) + 0.35 × 0.65 = 87.75%
Fair odds: 1/7 (−700)

Am I betting the Timberwolves to make the playoffs?

The implied odds are nuts. The chances we have to give the team are high but come on…not that high. They probably make it, but there’s no value betting them at 1/100. Just watch the games and stay away from your phone on this one.

Golden State Warriors to make the playoffs

Book	Yes	Implied Probability
DraftKings	1/100 (−10000)	99.01%
Bet365	1/100 (−10000)	99.01%
Betano	1/100 (−10000)	99.01%

The Warriors can still clinch the 6th seed outright with a win versus the LA Clippers (5^th seed), but if they don’t, they drop into the play-in as the 7th seed — and that opens the door to volatility. If they fall into that slot, they’ll face Memphis in Game 1, then a potential Game 3 vs Kings/Mavs.

An absolutely terrible scenario about which the sportsbooks say ‘’Hey, nothing to see here. Look the other way’’.

Steph can still carry this team, but they’re not the same dominant group anymore.

0.60 (vs MEM) + 0.40 × 0.70 = 88.0%
Fair odds: 1/7 (−700)

Positive EV on the Warriors?

Short answer: No. Move on.

Final word

We’re here to see mispriced lines and hopefully land on a plus EV bet. That’s how we beat the outrights market.

• Kings and Mavericks offer us some value.
• Fading Memphis is likely the way to go and I’ve already done in.
• The market is on point for everyone else so don’t force any bets.