Nathan Aspinall put himself firmly in contention for a semi-final place with his first nightly win on Night 10 of the Premier League Darts campaign last Thursday.

Indeed, ‘The Asp’ is now fourth in the table after his Manchester heroics, sitting on 15 points ahead of Night 11 in Rotterdam this Thursday. He is only ahead of fifth-placed Michael van Gerwen and behind third-placed Gerwyn Price by virtue of nights won, with both competitors also on 15 points.

The race to finish in the top four is incredibly tight, as Bespokesters crunch down the numbers and give the verdict on who will win their quarter-finals on Thursday through a unique Bet Builder.

The contenders

With Luke Littler and Luke Humphries almost certain to reach the semi-final due to their superior points totals (28 and 23 respectively), and Chris Dobey and Stephen Bunting (seven and five respectively) likely to miss out for the opposite reason, we have taken a deeper dive into the rest of the contenders hoping to join the two Lukes:

Gerwyn Price

• League position: 3rd
• Points: 15
• Nightly wins: 2
• Odds of making semi-final (via Oddschecker): 4/7

Price has won as many nights as Humphries (two), which shows his credentials as a potential semi-final participant. He also lost in the final of Night 9 to bottom-of-the-table Bunting, so could easily have three to his name.

Equally, ‘The Iceman’ has also crashed out of six quarter-finals, which is more than a lot of his opponents. Price is the definition of inconsistency, and while the odds of him reaching the semis are short, we can see the Welshman eventually missing out.

Verdict: Price’s odds are too short to back based on his inconsistency, and there is value elsewhere.

Nathan Aspinall

• League position: 4th
• Points: 15
• Nightly wins: 1
• Odds of making semi-final (via Oddschecker): 1/1

Aspinall broke into the top four with his first nightly win in Manchester, and unlike Price, he has shown a level of consistency throughout the campaign. Indeed, he boasts more matches won (nine compared to Price’s eight) despite sitting below him in the table, and has only been knocked out of the quarter-finals five times compared to Price’s six.

Aspinall has also made three finals, losing two of them including one to Price on Night 3. Still, he admitted himself after Thursday’s win that he is a “fighter” and a “warrior”, and that people call him a “Jack Russell” because he does not know when he is beaten.

Verdict: Aspinall is actually an outsider to make the semi-final based on current odds, but momentum and form mean a lot in darts. So does confidence, and the man from Stockport has bundles of that going into the final few weeks, so we are backing him to hold his top-four position.

Michael van Gerwen

• League position: 5th
• Points: 15
• Nightly wins: 0
• Odds of making semi-final (via Oddschecker): 8/13

Van Gerwen will go down as a Darts legend when he retires, but it is safe to say the Dutchman has not been at his best this campaign. Indeed, he is only one of three players not to record a nightly win so far, and has only won eight matches in total.

It should be noted that MvG has recently sustained an injury which meant he had to forfeit his quarter-final against Price in Night 9, and it is unclear how it will affect him over the next few weeks.

Verdict: Should Van Gerwen put his injury behind him, he has the experience to grab a place in the semi-final. While he has not been spectacular, he has only lost two quarter-finals of his own accord, and the consistent ticking of points could see him scrape through.

Rob Cross

• League position: 6th
• Points: 12
• Nightly wins: 0
• Odds of making semi-final (via Oddschecker): 7/4

Cross is another player who has struggled for consistency, as evidenced by the fact that he is the only player yet to make a final. Equally, he has only been knocked out of the quarter-final four times, meaning he’s met that end fewer times than Price and Aspinall.

On his day, Cross is capable of causing upsets, but more often than not, he has fallen short on quality.

Verdict: ‘Voltage’ has probably given himself too much to do, and reaching finals is where you gain the most points. He may be worth a punt, but do not be too disappointed if he misses out.

Premier League Darts Bet Builders: Night 11

The odds of each player winning their quarter-final (via Oddschecker) are as follows:

• Dobey (12/5) vs Humphries (4/11)
• Price (4/5) vs Aspinall (6/5)
• Bunting (13/10) vs Van Gerwen (4/5)
• Littler (1/4) vs Cross (33/10)

Humphries, Aspinall, Bunting and Littler to win (6.68/1 @ Betfred)

Our chosen bet builder sees two of the favourites winning their quarter-finals in Humphries and Littler, and the less-fancied Aspinall and Bunting also progressing.

Humphries and Littler are far clear of the rest, and should beat Dobey and Cross in seventh and sixth place respectively. Aspinall will back himself to beat Price after last Thursday’s nightly win, while Bunting won the previous night in Berlin and is up against Van Gerwen, who could still be nursing an injury.

Safe option

Humphries, Price, Van Gerwen and Littler to win (3.80/1 @ Betfred)

The safest option would be backing all of the favourites to win, which could still seal a tidy profit, but would only yield just over half the potential payout of our chosen bet builder.

Bold option

Dobey, Aspinall, Bunting and Littler to win (18.06/1 @ Betfred)

A bold option would be to go against all of the favourites except Littler, which would earn almost three times as much as our chosen bet builder.

Backing against Humphries, the number-one ranked player in the world, would be brave, but there have been numerous times in the campaign where he he has not hit the levels he can.

Dobey has shown he is capable of causing a major upset too, notably beating Littler 6-2 in the quarter-finals as recently as Night 9.

Conclusion

Night 11 is a night to back against the bookies’ favourites in the quarter-finals where possible, given the shock winners of Aspinall and Bunting in the previous two nights and extenuating circumstances like Van Gerwen’s injury.

In the wider picture, the odds of certain players making the semi-final from here are deliberately close given their proximities in the table, but we are backing Aspinall and Van Gerwen to eventually join Littler and Humphries at this early stage.