The stage is set for another electric chapter in the storied rivalry between Real Madrid and Barcelona, as two leading giants of world football meet in the Copa del Rey final.
Beyond the Copa del Rey, the Supercopa de España has also served as a key battleground for these teams. In particular, the 2011 and 2012 Supercopa finals are etched in the memories of fans worldwide, as Barcelona and Madrid fought tooth and nail for supremacy, respectively boasting Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo in star-studded lineups.
However, a cup setting can unnerve even the biggest of megastars, and here, Bespokesters looks at the key statistical differences between league and cup H2Hs, and whether we can expect nerves to affect betting markets ahead of (and during) Saturday’s showdown in Seville.
Key Differences
Total Goals per 90 minutes
The last five El Clásicos in LaLiga have produced a total of 19 goals, which makes for an average of 3.80 goals per game.
Meanwhile, the last five Copa del Rey/Supercopa finals played between these two Spanish giants have featured 22 goals in total, (not including Madrid’s extra-time winner in the 2022 Supercopa) for an average of 4.40 goals per 90 minutes.
At face value this suggests an Over 3.5 Goals pick as part of a Bet Builder has justification. It is also something of a surprise to those only just finding out the average from recent cup finals for the first time.
Traditionally, the expectation for any cup final is that it will be akin to an EFL Championship playoff, with two nervy sides feeling each other out in a match of superlative stakes.
Yet, while winning a cup final Clásico will always have some importance, the teams’ respective trophy cabinets are already brimming, drastically reducing the fear factor normally associated with cup finals.
Then again, there is still something for Barcelona to aim for, with a first treble since 2015 in their sights.
Average goal time per 90‘
That ‘nothing to lose’ spirit has also manifested itself within the average goal time of cup finals, with a distinct difference between them and league encounters of late.
A clear majority (15) of the 22 goals scored across the previous five El Clásico Copa del Rey and Supercopa finals have hit the back of the net in the first half and just seven have been scored in the second period.
Four of those first-half goals were scored inside the opening 10 minutes and just two arrived in the last 10.
Contrastingly, more recent league encounters have been the opposite, with slow-burning goalmouth action. Of the 19 goals that have been scored in the last five LaLiga El Clásicos, only seven have been scored in the first-half and the other 12 have all arrived during the second 45.
Half (six) of those second-half goals arrived in the final 10 minutes, including four netted in stoppage time.
Total Corners per 90′
With corners always being a popular addition to Bet Builders, it’s worth noting that 46 corners have been awarded during the last five league meetings between these two clubs, and, interestingly, the last five Copa del Rey/Supercopa finals played between Real and Barcelona have produced 45.
No significant difference there, but if Saturday follows the trend, we can expect around nine corners to be awarded inside the regulation 90′.
Cards per 90′
Cup finals between the pair have been reasonably feisty, with the last five averaging 6.2 cards per game, compared to the previous five league games producing 5.2 across them.
In turn, a pick of 5+ cards seems like a safe bet, with January’s Supercopa seeing the referee brandish 10 in total. Even those not normally expected to take one for the team got booked, includng Vinicius Jr, Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha.
However, there is a wild range of card totals across those five cup games (2-10), meaning that it may be safer to pick fouls for individual players rather than card totals.
Who will referee the Copa del Rey Final?
Sticking to a theme, the card count is ultimately at the mercy of the referee. In this case it is Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea.
Bengoetxea has taken charge of 16 LaLiga games so far this season and here are some of his per 90 minutes averages:
- 22.38 fouls awarded
- 0.13 penalties awarded
- 3.56 yellow cards awarded
- 0.25 red cards awarded
Bengoetxea has brandished 57 yellow and four red cards so far this season, taking charge of three Barcelona games but no matches involving Real Madrid. Of those Barcelona games, Bengoetxea has awarded four yellow cards but no reds.
Bet Builder tips and review
Barcelona to Win, Over 2.5 Total Goals, BTTS in First Half – 12.66/1 @ William Hill
Barcelona have won both of the opening two El Clásicos this season, claiming a 4-0 win at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in LaLiga and a 5-2 victory in January’s Supercopa Final.
For that reason, prices are very similar across the board for a Barcelona win in 90 minutes, but the 7/2 offered by William Hill as a two-in-one selection for the FCB win and a positive Over 2.5 result stands out from the rest at this time.
If those two are split into individual legs and combined with the last part, there’s an interesting acca to ponder.
As mentioned earlier, the Copa del Rey/Supercopa Final meetings between these two giants of Spanish football have tended to produce most of their goals in the opening 45 minutes.
The two sides’ main threats need no introduction either, so there is confidence in goals at either end before HT. At this time, Bet365 offer the best price for this leg (11/4), though only marginally so over William Hill.
With the last five Copa del Rey/Supercopa Finals between these two clubs producing an average of 4.40 total goals per 90 minutes, it’s clear to see why we’re going for this.
Safe Option
Barcelona to Win, Over 3.5 Goals & BTTS: Yes – 7.16/1 @ Paddy Power
Barcelona are the strong favourite to lift the Copa del Rey trophy this weekend, with Paddy Power backing the Catalonians at 11/10 ahead of Real Madrid, who are currently priced at 2/1.
Each of the last seven games played between these two giants of world football have witnessed at least three goals. Meanwhile, five of the last six El Clásicos have ended with both teams scoring.
Bold Option
Real Madrid to Win by Exactly 1 Goal, BTTS: Yes, A Goal in Each Half: Yes & Over 4.5 Total Goals – 20/1 @ Paddy Power
Paddy Power currently offers the best price for a straight-up BTTS: Yes result and their odds for the other legs of this Bet Builder also compare favourably to their rival bookmakers.
Real Madrid have won 10 of their last 16 encounters with Barcelona across all competitions, so despite losing twice against the Catalonians already this season, there is still hope for Carlo Ancelotti’s men.
Four of the last five El Clásicos have featured at least one goal in each half too, with the exception being Barcelona’s 4-0 win in Madrid back in October, in which all four goals arrived in the second half.
Three of the last four meetings between these two clubs have produced over 4.5 total goals and Real Madrid earned 3-2 and 4-1 wins in two of those fixtures.
BESPOKESTERS.com 
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