There are some crunch games on Saturday, but from a purely English perspective, it’s hard to find a fixture that has more riding on it than the one due to take place at MKM Stadium, where Hull City and Derby County will engage in a relegation scrap. 

Both teams find themselves in the bottom five. Fortunately for both, they come into this game outside of the bottom three, though neither are even close to being safe. So we’ll dive straight in and provide some hints as to how you can make the most ‘bang for your buck’.

As ever, we’ll also take a look at a standout Bet Builder currently available from a recognised UK bookmaker.

Value of a draw overinflated

Now, had things been a little different, this could easily be one of those games that prompts  the pair to opt for a cautious approach, safe in the knowledge that a draw would be beneficial for both. Unfortunately, that’s not really an option.

Failure to win this game could very, very easily land the Rams in the bottom three going into the final round of games, while if the hosts were to come up short, there’s a decent chance that they’d go into the closing weekend in the bottom three themselves.

If either team were to not seriously go for the win here, they’d be removing control over their own fate. In other words, playing for a draw, on the part of either, would be somewhat moronic, especially as the teams narrowly below them have hit form of late. 

BTTS a worthy ‘mixer’

The way this game is set up should lend itself to some attacking football being played. Sure, there will be nerves, and on its own, a ‘BTTS: Yes’ pick doesn’t have much face value. But considering the high stakes, it’s got enough about it to be a useful component in any Bet Builder.

Throw into the mix that both teams have scored in seven of Derby’s eight away games against the current bottom ten in the Championship and ‘Both Teams to Score’ looks chunky at odds of 6/5.

The fact that both teams have found the net in seven of Hull’s previous eight home games against teams of the same level stokes the fire further.

Lower opponents = Higher scores

Anyone using BTTS markets as a booster to any Bet Builder can find further vindication in Hull and Derby’s respective home and away records against fellow sides that will enter this weekend placed 15th or lower.

There is also value added to the Over/Under market for both team goals and total goals when looking at these records:

To break it down, of the 15 games, these are the proportions where a popular Bet Builder selection came through on a majority of the occasions:

• BTTS only: 13/15
• BTTS & Over 2.5: 10/15
• 2+ home goals: 10/15
• Home win: 8/15

Bet Builder review

Having looked around for the best prices and cross-checked them with selections that have high value – and weighed up the potential for a high scorer alongside the form of individual players – this is one that catches the eye:

Both Teams to Score, Over 2.5 Goals, Jerry Yates to Score or Assist, Ebou Adams to be Shown a Card (11/1 @ Paddy Power)

We’ve enthused enough about having BTTS in a Bet Builder, so we’ll skip straight to exploring how Derby forward Jerry Yates is a man for potential bet-builder punters to keep their eye on too, even when factoring in Derby’s poor away record against lower sides.

Yates again proved his knack for poaching against West Brom last weekend, and has netted 10 goals this season, shooting more times than any other Derby player too. Also, of the real regular starters, he’s the number one player in terms of shots on target per 90 minutes. 

I also like that Yates has taken advantage of facing the weaker defences this season, with four of his last five goals coming against bottom-half teams.

His shooting record in games such as this is also promising, with him recently hitting the target not once but twice against Luton, while Yates has worked the keeper at least once against Portsmouth, Preston, Cardiff, Plymouth and QPR this term. 

Lastly, we arrive at Ebou Adams, who is the market leader for cards, which doesn’t always scream value for money – though on this occasion, his market average to get a card currently seems a little lenient across all bookmakers.

Why? Well for starters, Adams is comfortably Derby’s most prolific fouler, making multiple fouls in five of his last six outings.

Reflecting his desire to lead the dogfight against other relegation battlers, he’s gone into the book against the likes of Portsmouth, Plymouth, Stoke and Cardiff this season. 

This is obviously another critical game of such ilk, and the Derby skipper should therefore be fired up, further justifying this selection.

Safe option

If 11/1 seems too meaty – or perhaps not meaty enough – there’s two others (also from Paddy Power) to consider.

First, the safe pick: If you simply take out ‘Ebou Adams to be Shown a Card’ from the above Bet Builder, the odds shorten to 4/1.

Bold option

By contrast, if you take the original four-legged Bet Builder and also add Over 9.5 Total Corners into the mix you get odds of 19/1. It makes all the more sense to back a corner count in double figures when so much is on the line, forcing the two sides to be more attack-minded.

Alternate pick

Both Teams to Score & Kane Wilson to Score or Assist (15/2 @ bet365)

The marauding full-back comes into this all-important game off the back of two high-energy, attack-minded efforts against Luton and West Brom, against whom he got into some dangerous areas high up the pitch, shooting a couple of times and delivering several crosses.

It’s also not as if the 25-year-old is unfamiliar with feeding his teammates, providing 17 Football League assists since the beginning of the 2021/22 campaign.

Wilson, who has looked more than happy to burst forward at every opportunity over the last few weeks, also has the odd goal in him, scoring twice this season, twice last season, while since the beginning of 21/22, he has seven goals to his name. 

In terms of goals and assists, in his last three full campaigns, Wilson averages 0.21 goals and assists per 90 minutes, or a goal/assist 21% of the time. That stat alone makes odds of 15/2 (=11.8% implied probability) look big to me.