The stakes are always raised at this stage of the season, with titles to be won across Europe. The only thing that makes matches matter even more in May is when they are derby matches, and this weekend, three high-octane derbies will take place, in Spain, Turkey and Croatia. 

In La Liga, Real Sociedad will take on Athletic Bilbao in the Basque Derby, in Turkey, Fenerbahce will take on Besiktas in an Istanbul Derby, and in Croatia, Hajduk Split will face Dinamo Zagreb in the Eternal Derby.

Although some would say that derby matches in England have become sanitised in recent times, they are still full of blood and thunder on the continent, so cards and fouls should be of key interest this weekend when it comes to bet builders for those fixtures. 

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao

Real Sociedad will take on Athletic Bilbao on Sunday night, and in terms of the three European derbies taking place this weekend, this one is the least significant in terms of league ramifications. 

That doesn’t mean to say there is absolutely nothing to play for though. With Spain now getting five Champions League places, Real Sociedad could finish eighth and sneak into the Europa Conference League this season. 

Although they are currently 10th, they are just two points behind Osasuna in eighth and four behind Celta Vigo in seventh, so the Europa League is within reach, too. 

For Athletic Bilbao, the situation is far less desperate. They are sitting pretty in fourth, with a five-point cushion over Villarreal in fifth and a six-point cushion over Real Betis in sixth. They are almost certainly going to be playing in the Champions League next season. 

Last month, as part of a wider analysis of card trends, Bespokesters looked at the last five editions of currently active LaLiga derbies. And while the Basque country’s main one only sat in mid-table behind the flagship derbies of Barcelona and Seville, there’s no shortage of fire in this fixture

Notably, exactly seven cards have been dished out in three of the last five meetings between these two clubs. Even in the two ‘quieter’ fixtures in that period, a combined nine yellow cards were dished out!

Interestingly, only one red card has been brandished in the last five Basque derbies between these teams. So it feels unlikely that we will see a red card this weekend, particularly as Athletic Bilbao will be taking things easy with their Europa League semi-final second leg against Man Utd on the horizon. 

Bet builder (13/1 @ Bet365)

  • Real Sociedad to win 
  • Mikel Oyarzabal to score anytime
  • Over 5.5 cards

This bet builder represents brilliant value across the board. The last six Basque derbies have been won by whichever team has been at home, and on this occasion, Real Sociedad will come into the match with more energy than an Athletic side fresh off a UEL semi-final first leg clash with Manchester United.

Mikel Oyarzabal is playing his best football of the season and has scored eight goals in his last seven appearances for club and country. When we combine this with the earlier card stat, an ‘Over 5.5 cards’ shout looks safe.

Fenerbahce vs Besiktas

On Sunday evening, Fenerbahce will take on Besiktas in the Turkish Super Lig, and although this fixture isn’t the ‘biggest’ Istanbul derby, this match is significant in terms of the title race in Turkey. 

Fenerbahce have been trying to hunt down Galatasaray all season, and with just five matches of the season still to play, they still trail their great rivals by five points. Anything other than a win over Besiktas, and Mourinho could be forced to wave the white flag. 

Besiktas have enjoyed a resurgence under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, but things have started to tail off in recent weeks. They are in hot pursuit of third place and a Europa League spot, so they are also in need of the points. 

The desperation of both teams lends itself to the cards market on Sunday, and Istanbul derbies are never tame affairs. There has been a red card dished out in three of the last four matches between these two teams, while one recent clash saw as many as nine yellow cards brandished.

Bet builder (5/1 @ Bet365)

  • Fenerbahce to win 
  • Both teams to score
  • Over 5.5 cards

Fenerbahce have more quality than their city rivals and are only second to Galatasaray when it comes to points earned on home turf this season. 

Expect goals to fly in at both ends of the pitch, as both teams have scored in three of the last four meetings between Besiktas and Fenerbahce. 

In terms of the cards, a total of 17 have been shown across the last three clashes between these two teams. This works out at an average of 5.66 cards per match. 

Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb

On Saturday, the Eternal Derby will take place when Hajduk Split take on Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatian HNL. 

It is the biggest Eternal Derby in many years, with both teams neck and neck alongside HNK Rijeka in the race for the title, with just four games to play. 

Dinamo are chasing their eighth consecutive league triumph in Croatia, while Hajduk Split are in pursuit of their first title since 2005. 

Of the three derbies discussed today, this is comfortably the most fierce in terms of the hatred between the clubs’ supporters, and this translates onto the pitch, too. There have been four red cards across the last three meetings alone, while eight yellow cards have been shown in three of the last five

Bet builder (23/1 @ Bet365)

  • Hajduk Split to win 
  • Under 2.5 goals
  • A red card to be shown

Playing in front of their home fans with a slice of history at stake, I’m backing Hajduk Split to get over the line this weekend, and recent history backs that up. From the last three Eternal Derbies, they have won two and drawn one. 

Don’t expect a classic, though, as six of the last seven meetings between these two teams have produced fewer than three goals.

Keeping up with the trend of the three most recent meetings between Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb, a red card is a fearless addition to this Bet Builder.

Leave a comment

Trending