Why Betting the Jaguars to Win the AFC South in 2025 Makes Sense

Last week after the NFL draft, a buddy of mine texted me asking if 3/1(+300) on the Jaguars to win the AFC South division was a typo. I laughed, said it wasn’t, and told him to hammer it. He didn’t. I did. And now here we are.

The Jaguars went 4-13 last year. They fired their coach, cleaned house in the front office, and got run off the field most weeks. And yet, I’m making a serious case for them to win the AFC South. Why? ‘Cause the market hasn’t caught up with how much Jacksonville has flipped the script.

At 14/5 (+280) at DraftKings and 3/1 (+300) at Bet365, the Jaguars are priced like a team hoping for a Wild Card spot. But they’re more than that now.

Here, I will look into the value of betting in favour of the Jaguars and why I’m so optimistic about their chances of a successful 2025 season.

Table of contents

Implied Odds vs. Reality

Quick betting math for the sharps: odds imply win probabilities. To convert odds to implied probability, use:

Implied Probability (%) = 100 / Odds

Then, to strip out the bookmaker’s margin (known as the overround), divide each team’s implied probability by the total implied probability across all outcomes. This gives you a “fair” win probability. You can then convert back to fair odds:

Fair Odds = 100 / Fair Probability (%)

Here’s how it breaks down:

Odds by Bet365*

IMPLIED ODDS:

Houston Texans @ 21/20 (+105) = 48.78%
Jacksonville Jaguars @ 3/1 (+300) = 25.00%
Indianapolis Colts @ 13/4 (+325) = 23.53%
Tennessee Titans @ 8/1 (+800) = 11.11%

Add that up: 108.42%. That’s the bookmaker’s margin.

Let’s adjust for FAIR odds:

Texans: 6/5 (+120) = 44.49%
Jaguars: 10/3 (+333) = 23.05%
Colts: 37/10 (+370) = 21.70%
Titans: 44/5 (+880) = 10.25%

Funnily enough, it’s always the favoured side that takes the biggest hit when it comes to fair odds compared to implied odds. This is the case with Houson here. Bookies give us 21/20 odds for a fair win probability of 44.49%. An incredibly juiced line.

Notable changes

The New Staff Decided to go get Travis Hunter

Jacksonville brought in James Gladstone as general manager (formerly with the Rams) and Liam Coen as head coach (ex-Buccaneers offensive coordinator). These guys are aggressive and modern. Their fingerprints were all over the Jaguars’ no-BS offseason.

Gladstone made waves by trading up with the Arizona Cardinals to take Travis Hunter at No. 2 overall—an unprecedented move that cost Jacksonville their No. 6 and No. 38 picks in 2025, plus a third-rounder in 2026. That’s a bold price tag for a cornerback/wide receiver hybrid, but the Jaguars weren’t playing it safe.

Travis Hunter’s impact won’t just show up in the box score. He’s a true two-way threat who had five interceptions, two return touchdowns, and over 1,000 receiving yards in his final college season at Colorado. He’s also a marketing magnet. Jacksonville’s local TV ratings and national buzz spiked after the pick—Hunter is already selling jerseys and will likely be featured in prime-time slots.

Coen’s offensive background should unlock more from quarterback Trevor Lawrence in year five, and now he’s got an elite athlete who can stretch the field or flip the momentum with a defensive play. If you want a team with a ceiling, it starts at the top—and Hunter might be the rocket fuel.

More Offseason Changes for the Jags

The Jaguars hit free agency like a team looking to compete now. Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah adds juice off the edge. Offensive lineman Patrick Mekari gives them versatility up front. Cornerback Jourdan Lewis and safety Eric Murray help patch a secondary that needed bodies.

They also gave Trevor Lawrence more weapons—wide receiver Dyami Brown brings deep speed, and they added tight ends Johnny Mundt and Hunter Long to round out the group. You can see the plan: protect Lawrence, surround him, win now.

The O-Line Overhaul No One’s Talking About

The offensive line overhaul might be the biggest reason Jacksonville wins the South. Patrick Mekari can play every spot. Robert Hainsey has starting reps at center and guard. Chuma Edoga and Fred Johnson bring legit depth at tackle.

In the draft, they grabbed Wyatt Milum from West Virginia—a plug-and-play guard—and Jonah Monheim, a developmental center who could push for a practice squad or depth spot. That’s four new linemen with starting potential. Last year, Trevor Lawrence got sacked 35 times. This year, he might have a clean pocket for once.

Opposition analysis

What About the Texans?

Quarterback C.J. Stroud is the real deal. But the Houston Texans have some cracks. Losing offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and plugging in Cam Robinson (nine sacks allowed in 2024) could sting. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are out, and the rookie wideouts aren’t proven.

Plus, Houston faces the 8th hardest schedule and will travel over 18,000 miles. That’s a grind. I’m not sweating out a 21/20 division bet with that team.

Jacksonville has the 6th easiest schedule. Houston’s ranked 25th. Fewer tough spots, fewer miles, and a roster that’s more balanced—this stuff adds up over 17 games. The Jaguars are positioned to rack up wins quietly.

Colts + Titans: Flawed Chasers

The Indianapolis Colts went 8-9, but they’re still finding themselves. Quarterback Anthony Richardson has upside but the team signed Daniel Jones as insurance. That says something. The defense added defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, but it’ll take time to gel.

The Tennessee Titans at 9/1 might tempt you, but rookie quarterback Cam Ward would have been a Day 2 pick in any other NFL draft. Also, No Mike Vrabel. No identity. You’re hoping, not betting with edge.

Final Word: Bet the Jags to Win the South

This isn’t the 2024 Jaguars. It’s a new operation—top to bottom. A line that can protect, weapons to stretch the field, and a quarterback that’s ready to take a leap.

They’re not the favorites—and that’s kinda the point. At 3/1 (+300), you’re betting on a team with a legit shot that the market will likely react to pretty soon.

Grab the number before it drops. Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South in 2025.