The Offensive Rookie of the Year market has already started to take shape — and if you’re waiting until August to pounce, you’re probably too late.

As of now, two names top the board at 11/4 (+275): Boise State phenom Ashton Jeanty, now with the Raiders, and Miami quarterback Cam Ward, the No. 1 overall pick.

But only one of these guys is mispriced. Let’s break it down — from a bettor’s perspective, not a fan’s.

Ashton Jeanty – RB, Raiders – 11/4 (+275)

Let’s get the stats right first. Jeanty’s 2024 season at Boise State was absurd:

• 2,601 rushing yards, 29 TDs on the ground
• 501 receiving yards, 3 TDs through the air
• 7.0 yards per carry, while touching the ball over 300 times

He was second in Heisman voting, won Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year (again), and carried a mid-tier program into relevance with one of the most dominant all-purpose seasons we’ve seen from a non-Power 5 back.

Now? He walks into Vegas as the clear-cut RB1, in a Pete Carroll system that will beg him to carry the offense. Josh Jacobs is gone. Zamir White is a rotational guy. This is Jeanty’s backfield from Week 1 — and he’s not just a runner. He can catch, block, and handle volume.

So what does 11/4 (+275) really mean here? That’s about a 26.7% implied chance he wins OROY. If you believe he gets 280+ touches in a run-heavy offense — and the game script won’t matter since he’s also the checkdown guy — his real odds might be 2/1 (+200) or shorter. This isn’t narrative. This is workload + skill + scheme.

You’re not just betting on production. You’re betting on clarity. Jeanty is the only rookie with a crystal-clear, three-down role on Day 1. That alone makes him mispriced.

Cam Ward – QB, Titans – 11/4 (+275)

Ward balled out at Miami in 2024. Let’s not pretend otherwise:

• 4,313 passing yards, 39 touchdowns, 7 INTs
• Led the ACC in every major QB category
• Showed poise, pocket presence, and arm talent against real competition

Tennessee saw enough to take him at No. 1, and he’s slated to start Week 1. The problem? The Titans are going to be bad. The offensive line is a patchwork mess, the WR group is below average, and there’s no proven playmaker on the roster outside of maybe Tyjae Spears.

Ward will run for his life, force throws, and likely rack up garbage stats — but not the kind voters reward. Unless he’s walking into a C.J. Stroud-type rookie year (and he’s not), there’s no world where his current odds hold value.

What’s fair? Somewhere around 9/2 (+450) feels more appropriate. The current 11/4 (+275) price is based on draft capital and position bias — not actual win probability. And while QBs do win this award more than RBs, they typically do so from the right team situation. Ward doesn’t have it.

Final Take: Hit Jeanty Now, Fade Ward Until He Slips

The books have this one wrong. Jeanty offers real value — a full-volume, three-down back in a run-first system, with big-play upside and no real competition for touches. That’s a gift at 11/4 (+275).

Ward? His number’s a trap. You’re paying a premium for hype while betting on a rookie QB in a bad situation. Wait for drift. If he slides to 9/2 (+450) or longer, maybe it’s worth a nibble. Until then? Stay away.