When it was introduced a couple of years ago, the NBA Play-in tournament represented a new era in top-level Basketball. It also gave bookies the opportunity to come up with even more exotic bets in the form of props or futures.

What it gave to bettors, meanwhile, was a more granular look at the ‘To make the playoffs’ market, accompanied by some good short-term futures betting opportunities.

Together, we will look at the four teams currently set to contest the play-in tournament in the NBA Eastern Conference. We will determine whether there is any value, if a line is too juiced or if maybe the bookies have fallen asleep at the wheel.

Prepare for some betting insight, with the first piece of advice being:

Sometimes the best bet is the one you don’t place.

The betting exercise here will be:

1. Looking at the odds across a few sportsbooks.
2. Then, determining the true chances for the play-in teams to make the playoffs.

 If we find value there, or ’positive EV’, as it’s also known, we’re placing a wager.

Now that we got that out of the way, let’s see what we’ve got for the Orlando Magic (40-40) in terms of odds to make the playoffs.

For your convenience I’m showing you a US sportsbook (DraftKings), a UK one (Paddy Power) and one based in Continental Europe (Betano)

Orlando Magic to make the playoffs

Book	Odds	Implied odds
DraftKings	2/15 (-750)	88.26%
Paddy Power	1/12  (-1200)	92.34%
Betano	11/100 (-909)	90.09%

Last night’s match between the Magic and the Celtics changed absolutely nothing. Orlando won against the second-seeded Boston who decided to sit all their starters in preparation for the playoffs. The Magic needed the victory in order to solidify their presence in the 7^th seed in the East. Don’t look into that final score of 96-76 too much.

The Magic are almost cemented in the 7^th seed but there is still a slim 20% chance that they drop down to the 8^th seed. The Atlanta Hawks (37-42) might win out, (three games in a row) and interestingly enough, the two teams will face off in the final game of the regular season.

• 80% of the time the Magic will get the 7^th seed
• 20% to drop to 8^th.

Now, looking at the conditional win probabilities for the Magic, as a 7^th seed, we estimate that they have about 65% chance to win the first Play-in game. Their likely opponent will be the Hawks at home, where we expect the Magic to be a 2/3 favourite.

If they lose this game, the rough chance to win the rebound game (game 3) is 50%.

The formula is the following:

7th seed to make the playoffs = Magic (win Game 1) + (lose game 1 x win game 2)

So:

Orlando 7^th seed = 0.65 + (0.35 x 0.55) = 84.3% to make the NBA playoffs

If somehow the Magic end up in the 8^th seed prior to the play-in tournament, we get this:

Orlando 8^th seed = 0.45 + (0.55 x 0.50) = 72.5% to make the NBA playoffs

By combining the two probabilities we get an overall chance of about 82% for Orlando Magic to make the playoffs.

Did we find value in this heavily juiced line?

It is clear as day we get absolutely zero value backing the Magic to make the playoffs. Books tell us the playoff chances for the Magic are around 90% but it looks like they are pulling a fast one on us. No way we’re buying this.

It might look like a surefire winner, but in reality, you’ll have to sweat out a 1/12 bet which can go bad quickly.

If you place this bet, you’re essentially saying you’re fine with Orlando losing Game 1. Otherwise, just go ahead and back them on the money line once the odds for the play-ins come out. Buying an insurance policy at 1/12 is irresponsible.

Getting anything worse than 2/9 (-450) is not worth your attention.

Atlanta Hawks to make the playoffs

Book	Odds	Implied odds
DraftKings	20/41 (-205)	67.20%
Paddy Power	4/7  (-175)	63.65%
Betano	3/5 (-166)	62.5%

The chances for the Hawks to retain the 8^th seed given the strength of their remaining schedule sit at about 70%. I give it 30% chance that they’ll finish 9^th.

Even though they have a game vs the Magic to finish the season, Orlando will likely have locked the 7^th seed before that. So it might not be a very competitive match after all.

If Atlanta finishes 8^th in the East:

1. Chance to win in 1^st play-in game vs Orlando: ~45%
2. Chance to win Game 3 vs Chicago/Miami: ~50%

Following the formula we used for Orlando:

Atlanta 8^th seed = 0.45 + (0.55 x 0.55) = 75.25% to make the NBA playoffs

Atlanta 9^th seed = 0.55 (% to win Game 2) x 0.45 (% to win Game 3) = 24.75% to make the NBA playoffs

The weighted average:

0.70 x 75.25% + 0.30 x 24.75% = 52.67 + 7.42 = 60.1%

Did we find value in wagering on the Hawks to make the playoffs?

It appears the market (at least in Europe) is close to our true odds. Hence, we found no good value looking to back the Hawks to make the playoffs. With Jalen Johnson out for the season (18.9 points/10.1 rebounds per game) I am not excited for Atlanta.

Chicago Bulls to make the playoffs

Book	Odds	Implied odds
DraftKings	9/4 (+225)	30.77%
Paddy Power	15/8 (+188)	34.78%
Betano	33/20 (+165)	37.74%

Smells like value here from the beginning, doesn’t it? Let’s see.

The Bulls realistically have a 30% chance to get to the 8^th seed. 70% they stay in 9^th place. Chicago will play vs the Wizards and vs the 76ers to end the season and currently have a half-game edge over the Heat.

The resilient Bulls team is pretty deep and this showed a few days ago when they won a crucial game against their direct competitor Miami (36-44) with a score of 119-111. Josh Giddey has provided a spark lately for the Windy City’s club and this will surely carry over in the play-in tournament. 

Chicago 8^th seed = 0.45 + (0.55 x 0.55) = 75.25% to make the NBA playoffs

Chicago 9^th seed = 0.55 x 0.45 = 24.75% to make the NBA playoffs

The weighted average:

0.30 x 75.25% + 0.70 x 24.75% = 22.57 + 17.32 = 39.9%

Did we find value backing the Bulls?

Yes! If you’re placing a short-term outright bet, I’d go ahead (already did) and bet on the Bulls to make the playoffs. American users get the best value with DK (30.77% implied probability), but folks around the UK can still enjoy a decent investment with moderate risk at Paddy Power (34.78% implied probability)

On top of all that, the Bulls might end up getting the 8^th seed and make this a super good bet.

Miami Heat to make the playoffs

Book	Odds	Implied odds
DraftKings	14/5 (+280)	26.32%
Paddy Power	N/A	N/A
Betano	13/4 (+325)	23.53%

As things stand, the Heat will need two consecutive wins to secure a playoff spot. Their formula is pretty simple.

Miami 10^th seed = 0.45 x 0.40 = 18% to make the NBA playoffs.

Did we find value or are the Heat overpriced?

That’s a hard pass for me. Even if Miami gets the 9^th seed (They have to win both of their remaining games and the Bulls must lose at least of their last two) they are still in the middle of nowhere. The probability of achieving the 9^th seed I have estimated at 22-24%. The formula won’t change that much thus not getting us any extra value at current odds.